Critical Infrastructures: Enhancing Preparedness & Resilience for the Security of Citizens and Services Supply Continuity: Proceedings of the 52nd ESReDA Seminar Hosted by the Lithuanian Energy Institute & Vytautas Magnus University

Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience is a major societal security issue in modern society. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) provide vital services to modern societies. Some CIs’ disruptions may endanger the security of the citizen, the safety of the strategic assets and even the governance continuity. The European Safety, Reliability and Data Association (ESReDA) as one of the most active EU networks in the field has initiated a project group on the “Critical Infrastructure/Modelling, Simulation and Analysis – Data”. The main focus of the project group is to report on the state of progress in MS&A of the CIs preparedness & resilience with a specific focus on the corresponding data availability and relevance. In order to report on the most recent developments in the field of the CIs preparedness & resilience MS&A and the availability of the relevant data, ESReDA held its 52nd Seminar on the following thematic: “Critical Infrastructures: Enhancing Preparedness & Resilience for the security of citizens and services supply continuity”. The 52nd ESReDA Seminar was a very successful event, which attracted about 50 participants from industry, authorities, operators, research centres, academia and consultancy companies.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet

Critical Services continuity, Resilience and Security: Proceedings of the 56th ESReDA Seminar

Critical Infrastructures (CIs) remain among the most important and vital service providers to modern societies. Severe CIs’ disruptions may endanger security of the citizen, availability of strategic assets and even the governance stability. Not surprisingly, CIs are often targets of intentional attacks, either of physical or cyber nature. Newly emerging hybrid threats primarily target CIs as part of the warfare. ESReDA as one of the most active EU networks in the field has initiated a project group (CI-PR/MS&A-Data) on the “Critical Infrastructure/Modelling, Simulation and Analysis – Data”. The main focus of the project group is to report on the state of progress in MS&A of the CIs preparedness & resilience with a specific focus on the corresponding data availability and relevance. In order to report on the most recent developments in the field of the CIs preparedness & resilience MS&A and the availability of the relevant data, ESReDA held its 48th, 52nd and 56th Seminars. The 56th ESReDA Seminar on “Critical Services continuity, Resilience and Security” attracted about 30 participants from industry, authorities, operators, research centres and academia. The seminar programme consisted of 18 technical papers, two plenary speeches and an interactive session on Climate & CI protection.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet

Advances in Reliability, Risk and Safety Analysis with Big Data: Proceedings of the 57th ESReDA Seminar: Hosted by the Technical University of Valencia, 23-24 October, 2019, Valencia, Spain

The publication presents 57th Seminar organized by ESReDA that took place at the Polytechnic University of Valencia/Universitat Politècnica de Valencia, Spain. The Seminar was jointly organized by ESReDA and CMT Motores Termicos, a research unit at the Polytechnic University of Valencia. In accordance with the theme proposed for the Seminar, communications were presented that made it possible to discuss and better understand the role of the latest big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies in the development of reliability, risk and safety analyses for industrial systems. The world is moving fast towards wide applications of big data techniques and artificial intelligence is considered to be the future of our societies. Rapid development of 5G telecommunications infrastructure would only speed up deployment of big data analytic tools. However, despite the recent advances in the these fields, there is still a long way to go for integrated applications of big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence tools in business practice. We would like to express our gratitude to the authors and key note speakers in particular and to all those who shared with us these moments of discussion on subjects of great importance and topicality for the members of ESReDA. The editorial work for this volume was supported by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in the frame of JRC support to ESReDA activities.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market

Accident Investigation and Learning to Improve Safety Management in Complex System: Remaining Challenges: Proceedings of the 55th ESReDA Seminar

Accident investigation and learning from events are fundamental processes in safety management, involving technical, human, organisational and societal dimensions. The European Safety, Reliability and Data Association, ESReDA, has a long tradition in gathering together experts in the field to work together, and to share and explore experiences of using various paradigms, approaches, methods databased and implementation of safety systems across different industries. The 55th ESReDA seminar on “Accident Investigation and Learning to Improve Safety Management in Complex System: Remaining Challenges” attracted more than 80 participants from industry, authorities, operators, research centres and academia. The seminar programme consisted of 22 technical papers, three keynote speeches and a workshop to debate about the remaining challenges of accident investigation and potential innovative breakthroughs.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet

Tabletop exercise: Coherent Resilience 2019 (CORE 19)

Coherent Resilience 2019 (CORE 19) was a Tabletop Exercise (TTX) on the Baltic States and hybrid threats related to regional gas supplies and critical energy infrastructure protection. The TTX took place 14-16 May 2019 in Vilnius, Lithuania. The goal of the exercise was to support the national authorities and gas transmission system operators (TSO) of the Baltic States in ensuring supply of gas to consumers and mitigating the disruption over the Baltic region. This three-day regional, multilateral, interagency, and public-private sector event was divided into three phases including an academic seminar, a two-day TTX, and a distinguished visitors’ day that included after-action briefings. This report focuses largely on syndicate responses to the exercise scenario vignettes and injects to include capturing areas of improvement, best practices, and recommendations. The event brought together 108 participants from 14 NATO and European Union countries, who represented 35 different governmental organisations representing gas supply and energy security stakeholders.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market

Effect of investments to security of gas supply: A probabilistic cost-benefit case study

This study case analyses investments in gas transmission infrastructure of a selected European Union (EU) region for a period of 15 years (2007–2021). The number of significant investments analysed is 6, each of them leading either to opening a new supply source or increasing capacity of the existing source. The effect of these investments to security of gas supply was analysed by applying the in-house developed probabilistic gas network simulator ProGasNet. The ProGasNet estimates change of the security of supply situation after each investment project and a quantitative measure called Investment Return in Security of Supply (IRSS) is proposed. The IRSS is a change in security of supply value before and after the investment divided by the investment project cost and can be used to rank and compare project benefits from the security of supply point of view and identify the most cost-beneficial investment projects.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market

Monte-Carlo based reliability modelling of a gas network using graph theory approach

The aim of the study is to develop a European gas transmission system probabilistic model to analyse in a single computer model, the reliability and capacity constraints of a gas transmission network. We describe our approach to modelling the reliability and capacity constraints of networks elements, for example gas storages and compressor stations by a multi-state system. The paper presents our experience with the computer implementation of a gas transmission network probabilistic prototype model based on generalization of the maximum flow problem for a stochastic-flow network in which elements can randomly fail with known failure probabilities. The paper includes a test-case benchmark study, which is based on a real gas transmission network. Monte-Carlo simulations are used for estimating the probability that less than the demanded volume of the commodity (for example, gas) is available in the selected network nodes. Simulated results are presented and analysed in depth by statistical methods.JRC.F.3-Energy Security, Systems and Marke

Towards development of gas transmission network model by Monte Carlo simulations

The paper presents development process of a gas trans-mission network reliability model. The aim is to model simultaneously two important aspects of gas transmission infrastructure: (1) modelling of gas flows in network and (2) modelling of component failures and other constrains and limitations. In our approach, gas transmission network is expressed by a flow network, i.e. by a directed graph from graph theory. Reliability aspects, i.e. effects of component failures in the transmission infrastructure are simulated by Monte Carlo technique. We present a test case of an energy transmission infra-structure. Finally, we discuss results and future develop-ments of the energy transmission infrastructure models.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

Risk Analysis Approaches to Rank Outliers in Trade Data

The paper discusses ranking methods for outliers in trade data based on statistical information with the objective to prioritize anti-fraud investigation activities. The paper adopts a ranking method based on the risk analysis framework, presents a number of criteria for ranking outliers in trade data and discusses a comprehensive indicator that aggregates the individual numerical criteria.JRC.G.2-Global security and crisis managemen